Novo Nordisk has reduced its sales and profits forecasts for 2025 due to lower-than-expected demand in the US for blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs, though shares in the company were still up following positive Q1 results.
Despite feeling the effects from the compounded glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) market, Novo Nordisk is still growing at a fast pace. Total revenues for the company came in at DKr78.1bn ($11.9bn) for Q1 2025, up 18% at constant exchange rates from the same period last year. Operating profit increased by 20%, reaching DKr38.8bn.
Whilst the share price in the Copenhagen-listed company opened relatively unchanged to a pre-earnings release market close, the stock crept up 5.8% by mid-morning today (7 May). Novo Nordisk鈥檚 market cap of DKr1.56tn is the second largest in Europe.
The Danish pharma company鈥檚 diabetes and obesity care business made up the bulk of total revenue. Sales for the unit, headed by GLP-1RA treatments Wegovy (semaglutide) and Ozempic (semaglutide) for weight loss and type 2 diabetes, respectively, reached DKr73.5bn. Novo Nordisk stated that obesity sales were the main driver 鈥� up 65% compared to Q1 2024. Diabetes sales were up a more modest 11%, with the market not as big as its burgeoning obesity counterpart.
When it comes to its total 2025 outlook, Novo Nordisk does not think it will reach its previously anticipated target. The company cut its sales growth to a range of 13-21%, compared to earlier guidance of 16-24%. Operating profit growth is forecast at 16-24%, also down from a previous range of 19-27%, the company said.
The reason, Novo Nordisk stated, was 鈥渓ower-than-planned penetration of branded GLP-1RA treatments in the US, impacted by compounded GLP-1RAs鈥�.
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By GlobalDataCompounding pharmacies were allowed to produce vast quantities of semaglutide copies when Novo Nordisk鈥檚 branded drugs were in short supply starting in early 2022. Compounded drugs are custom-made and unbranded medications that contain the same active ingredient as a marketed drug, such as semaglutide, under a prescription.
Several telehealth companies such as Mochi Health and Hims & Hers began to offer compounded semaglutide during the shortage, significantly growing their customer base in this time. Their growth in popularity has meant an erosion of market share in the obesity sector for Novo Nordisk. The Danish company has now formed a partnership to provide Him & Hers customers access to the NovoCare Pharmacy.
Novo Nordsik鈥檚 CEO Lars Fruergaard J酶rgensen said: “In the first quarter of 2025, we delivered 18% sales growth and continued to expand the reach of our innovative GLP-1 treatments. However, we have reduced our full-year outlook due to lower-than-planned branded GLP-1 penetration, which is impacted by the rapid expansion of compounding in the US.鈥�
Semaglutide is no longer in short supply, meaning the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has set deadlines for pharmacies to halt production of their copies. The share price increase today possibly reflected the easing of compounding pressures in 2025, along with a strong Q1.
Some vendors, specifically online platforms, have said, however, that they will continue to offer compounded semaglutide as part of a personalised therapy plan. Separately, there are also sellers of illegal GLP-1RAs that are neither compounded nor FDA-approved.
鈥淲e are actively focused on preventing unlawful and unsafe compounding and on efforts to expand patient access to our GLP-1RA treatments,鈥� J酶rgensen added.
Despite a temporary slowing in growth due to compounding pressures, GlobalData still forecasts peak sales of $26bn for Wegovy by 2031.
GlobalData is the parent company of Pharmaceutical Technology.
